OPEC+ fails to deliver on output pledge – Morgan Stanley
The 411,000 barrels daily that OPEC+ said it would add to oil production in May have not materialised, commodity analysts from Morgan Stanley said.
“Notwithstanding the around 1 million-barrel-a-day increase in production quotas between March and June, an actual increase in production is hard to detect,” the team, led by Martijn Rats said in a note today, as quoted by Bloomberg. “Notably, it does not appear that production in Saudi Arabia has ramped up significantly,” the note also said.
The data Morgan Stanley used to see if there was an actual increase in production included refinery flows, exports, pipeline flows, and inventory change information. Still, the bank believes that OPEC+ would add some 420,000 barrels daily to its crude production in the months between June and September, tipping the market into a surplus.
The surplus situation will be additionally fueled by production growth outside OPEC+, which Morgan Stanley sees at 1.1 million barrels daily, compared with estimated demand growth of just 800,000 barrels daily.
OPEC+ shocked many earlier this year when it said it was going to start returning supply to market at a higher rate than originally expected. Said rate, at 411,000 barrels daily, was seen as bringing about a surplus sooner than, again, many in the oil market expected. Some observers noted, however, that not all OPEC+ members that took part in the supply curbs would be either able or willing to boost their production by the desired rate, which the Morgan Stanley data suggests may indeed be the case.
Read also: OPEC+ oil producers stick to their guns with another big hike for July
Oil prices, meanwhile, remain elevated, with Brent crude climbing above $66 per barrel to trade at $66.40 at the time of writing, and West Texas Intermediate moving closer to $65, to trade at $64.52 per barrel at the time of writing. The climb is seen as evidence of hope the United States and China would be able to come to some form of agreement on trade.
CardinalStone leads as ASI hits record high in June trading
Dipo Oladehinde
The Nigerian Stock Exchange opened in June 2025 on a strong note, with the All-Share Index (ASI) reaching a historic high of 114,616.75, a milestone that coincides with the second anniversary of the current administration.
Over the past two years, the government’s economic reforms, including foreign exchange liberalisation, removal of fuel subsidies, a return to orthodox monetary policy, and an end to deficit monetization, have been well-received by investors.
Furthermore, the relative stability of the naira, despite prevailing global risk-off sentiment, has supported the recovery of companies previously hit by significant foreign exchange losses, particularly in the FMCG and telecommunications sectors.
The stabilising macroeconomic environment in Nigeria has resulted in improved credit ratings, bolstering investor confidence and leading to increased market participation. Similarly, local investors continue to play a pivotal role, contributing to a more balanced investor base and enhancing overall market liquidity.
CardinalStone Securities Limited (CSSL), one of the leading stockbrokers by both volume and value over the past three years, played a pivotal role in the recent market rally. The firm emerged as the top-ranked broker on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) between June 2 and 5, accounting for 37.76% of total market volume and 36.36% of total value traded. During this period, CSSL executed transactions worth over ₦55.5 billion, trading more than 2.4 billion shares.
Prior to the June market surge, CardinalStone had already built solid momentum in the first five months of 2025. From January to May, the firm ranked among the top two stockbrokers in both volume and value traded on the Nigerian Exchange, handling over ₦325 billion in transactions and more than 8.7 billion shares.
This strong showing reinforces CardinalStone’s leadership in facilitating capital market access for both local and international investors. Backed by a robust research platform, efficient trade execution, and deep market expertise, the firm remains dedicated to unlocking value and driving investment opportunities across Nigeria’s capital markets.
“As investor confidence continues to strengthen and policy reforms take root, we’re proud to serve as a trusted partner in navigating the evolving market landscape,” said Peter Omoregie, Managing Director of CardinalStone Securities. “Our performance is a testament to the trust our clients place in us and our unwavering commitment to delivering consistent value.”
“CardinalStone’s dominance in early June highlights its strength in connecting investors with quality Nigerian securities,” added a market analyst familiar with the firm. “Their ability to capture nearly 40% of market activity is no small feat.”
Trading data from the Nigerian Exchange reveals a robust ecosystem, with the top 10 brokers accounting for 67.96% of market volume and 69.83% of value traded. Despite the concentration, the market remains competitive, with several firms posting notable performances.
Among them: EFG Hermes Nigeria Limited secured the second spot by value traded with over ₦14.4 billion; APT Securities and Funds ranked second by volume with over 416 million shares traded and Stanbic IBTC Stockbrokers Limited featured prominently across both value and volume rankings.
As the second half of 2025 approaches, the strong start to June reflects sustained optimism in the Nigerian stock market. Supported by a favorable policy environment, strengthening economic fundamentals, and the active participation of leading market intermediaries like CardinalStone, Nigeria is well-positioned to attract continued capital inflows.
The record-breaking ASI and heightened broker activity affirm Nigeria’s status as a leading investment destination in Africa and a key emerging market globally.
